Tuesday 22 April 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are fractionally lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open around 1870. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$1. Equity bulls are clearly what is soft resistance at the 'fed minutes' high of 1872. There remains possibility of a retrace to the 1855/45 zone, before the 1900s in May.


sp'daily5


Summary

So, the market is set to remain stuck under the 1872 high from two weeks ago. Hourly cycles are still suggestive of a down wave, but perhaps prices will merely consolidate sideways, rather than actual minor declines.

Indeed, this one primary reason why I'm not even going to attempt a minor index short at this 1870 level. Overly risky in my view. What I would consider is an index long, somewhere in the 1855/45 zone. That certainly seems viable.
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Notable early mover: NFLX, post earnings, +7% in the $370s. There will be pretty stiff resistance in the 380s.

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Video update from Mr Permabull



Not surprisingly, Oscar is bullish for today, and keep in mind, he has a primary target of ES 1980 or so in the current cycle, with sp'2100s 'eventually'. I can only hope we see the 1600/1500s, before the latter occurs.
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Good wishes for Tuesday trading.


9.13am.. sp +1.5pts...we'll break the 1872 high...and that opens up another 10/15pts.

Regardless, I don't intend to short this, price action just doesn't favour the bears in the bigger picture..yet.

Notable weakness: Oil, -1.1%

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9.57am.. and that is why I can't short..whilst the primary trend is to the upside. Overly risky.

VIX set to lose the 13s, if sp'1880s.