Tuesday 22 April 2014

10am update - opening minor gains

The 'fed minutes' high of sp'1872 is decisively broken, and there is now open upside to the 1880/85 zone - as early as today's close. VIX remains crushed in the low 13s. Metals are a touch lower. Notable weakness..Oil, -1.4%.


sp'60min


USO, daily


Summary

*I was watching the NFLX calls at the open, seeing how they reacted. Most May were up 40/50% or so, but they lost most of those gains within 5/10mins.
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Worse case now for those in bear land. We put in a daily close >1872...and with sig' QE tomorrow...we'll just keep pushing higher for rest of the week.

I realise that is a near nightmare to some out there. As ever, trading stops are the primary solution.
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As for Oil, it looks pretty ugly on the daily charts, with a black-fail candle just 3 days ago. Next support, 36.50s, another 2% lower.
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10.02am.. New historic high on the transports...7700s...8k by mid June ?

What is clear...ZERO downside pressure, and price action looks like algo-bot melt mode, which could last for days...if not weeks.
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10.11am. Am just checking on the SPY put chain for May. The disturbing thing is seeing the 186s, having lost 35% since yesterday morning.

A 0.8% index gain, with he puts whack -35%. The horror!

I'd guess those holding short via June, have lost around half of those numbers.

Point is, daily/weekly charts are offering 1890/1900 in the immediate term.

There is NO downside power, is there?


10.29am.. market appears in melt mode. A close in the 1880s..now very likely.

With sig' QE tomorrow, bears should be well out of the way.