12pm update - new historic high for the transports

The 'old leader' - aka, Transports, has broken a new historic high, and is now the primary warning that other indexes will follow in the days..and weeks ahead. Indeed, the Dow is less than 100pts from breaking a new high. Metals and Oil remain notably weak, with Gold -$10, and Oil -1.7%


Trans, weekly

GLD, daily

Summary

*First, regarding Gold. A break <122, should open up another $40/50 downside, and frankly, the 2013 lows look set to be taken out. I realise some will be seeking an IHS price pattern, but really...no.
--

For me, the only issue is whether we'll see Trans 8k in this new multi-week up wave. It seems viable by late May/early June.

Indeed, best guess right now, we'll see the next rollover in mid June..that is two FOMCs away.
--


VIX update from Mr T.



--
time for tea..and some reflection on the lunacy...that continues.