sp'weekly7b
Summary
*a late day bounce from sp'1841 to 1852, but that is likely just part of a natural 'stupid bounce'. Overall, the equity bears should be very pleased with the price action since Friday morning.
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The above weekly7'b scenario remains the most bearish outlook, and despite the recent two days of downside, bears still need two key things...
1. a daily break..and close <1840
2. A hit of the lower weekly bollinger.
Once the latter is achieved, then the subsequent bounce might form a RS in May...with the more dynamic downside in June/July. That is a long way off though..so lets first see if market will break <1840 this week.
Farewell to an old miner
James River Coal Company (JRCC) filed for bankruptcy today. JRCC used to get an awful lot of attention across many of the popular message boards.
JRCC, monthly, 10yr
With the announcement, JRCC collapsed a further 40% in after hours trading - see Yahoo finance, to around 40 cents. JRCC sure wasn't the first miner to implode in the last few years, anyone out there remember Patriot Coal (PCX) ? With the demise of JRCC, I have to wonder about the remaining coal miners, namely ACI, ANR, BTU, CNX, and WLT.
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Looking ahead
There is nothing of significance due tomorrow.
*next sig' QE-pomo is not until Thursday. Bulls...beware!
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Ready to short a Tuesday bounce
With the break of the weekly 10MA, I'm now reasonably comfortable to short the next micro-cycle bounce. With both daily and weekly MACD cycles negative, the price momentum is most certainly with the bears.
A daily close <1840..and the door will be wide open to a swift decline to the sp'1770s, and I'd most certainly like to ride that wave.
Goodnight from London