sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Despite some continued minor chop, a bounce is likely underway.
Hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is offering at least 6-10 trading hours of upside, which will likely take us into early tomorrow.
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*I remain on the sidelines, will consider a re-short...tomorrow, when the MACD cycle will likely max out..somewhere in the sp'1865/75 zone.
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10.04am... bears can't break lower.....bulls are going to push considerably higher, but with the recent weakness..the path upward will likely be real shaky.
I remain content to watch..seeking the 1865/75 zone...by tomorrow morning.
10.21am.. minor weak chop..back to 1842. I'd be surprised if we break lower from here. Price structure just doesn't suggest it.
10.24am... BREAK...to 1840.....surprising indeed.
10.26am.. 50 day MA...FAILED.... bounce.....FAILED.
VIX +2%...but still. not in the 16s. No market concern.............yet.
10.30am... weekly 'rainbow' charts turn outright bearish..first time since the Feb' low.
So much for the bounce.
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10.37am.. well, the 50 day was pretty much decisively broken, and regardless of any bounce now...a LOT of technical damage has been done.
VIX remains relatively weak, and is only +1%..... which to me, still threatening an equity rally.
10.44am.. it remains bizarre how calm the market is this morning, not least with the 50 day MA taken out on the sp'500..
VIX certainly reflects a market with little concern.