Tuesday, 8 April 2014

11am update - 50 dma fails, second bounce attempt

US equities failed the first bounce attempt, with a brief break of the 50 day MA, with sp'1837. With the early drop, the weekly charts turned outright bearish for the first time since late January. VIX is showing little concern though, and seems unable to hold the 16s.


sp'60min


Summary

So..the 50 day MA has been decisively taken out, and we've even seen the weekly charts for the headline sp'500 index turn outright bearish.

For the bears with eyes on much lower levels, regardless of any bounce in the next trading day or two, the bigger picture looks increasingly weak.

My only concern remains a VIX which is still not showing quite enough upside power. 

Oh well, it just means the VIX calls are relatively 'cheap'.
-


Notable strength in the coal miners...

BTU, daily


Kinda ironic, after JRCC imploded yesterday. Less competition, good for the other miners?
-

11.01am.. a FIERCE spike-floor candle.. from 1837 to 47...confirming a near term floor.

A daily close in the 1860s.. very much still viable.

This remains a tricky market...kicked out the bulls...only to whipsaw higher.

yours... awaiting the 1865/75 bounce zone.


11.06am... follow through..and here come the 1850s...bears on the run!


11.17am.. VIX -3%..and set to lose the 15s.  A daily close in the 14.50/00 zone looks likely.


11.39am.. minor chop, but the turn is there..and 1860s look due this afternoon.  

Notable strength; GOOG + 2.5%