Wednesday, 26 March 2014

Some of the chess pieces

Whilst the main market continues to see mixed chop in a tight sp'1883/1834 range, I thought I'd end a rather tedious Tuesday, by highlighting a few of the bigger chess pieces - WTIC Oil, Copper, US Bond  yields, and the USD.

WTIC Oil, monthly

Copper, monthly

10yr bond yields

USD, monthly'2, rainbow


What to note on the above four?

Well, we have Copper and Oil, both somewhat weak. In many ways, the break in Copper under the $3 threshold is the most bearish economic aspect so far this year. Certainly, we don't necessarily have to close March in the 2s, but it'd sure help from a pure technical perspective.

Bonds are still broadly climbing, with the 10yr at 2.75%. By late 2015, I'd be surprised if the 10yr is not in the 4s, even low 5s, and no, I don't believe that is what tips the economy over the edge.

The USD looks floored - see MACD (green bar histogram cycle. Obviously, a March close in the 80s is pretty important for the dollar bulls, whilst there remains the threat of a further decline to the 78s. All those touting 'dollar doom' really ought to stay mute until we see sub 70..and that includes the Schiff.

Looking ahead

Wednesday will see Durable Goods orders, and the PMI service number. The market will definitely pay some attention to those. If they come in better than expected, then the bull maniacs should be able to make a play for the 1880s again.

Recent price action remains mixed, and right now, a daily close <1850 looks..difficult. As many have noted, perhaps the 'big money' is just going to be hold this market flat into end month/quarter.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2-3bn, bears...beware!

Hysteria in London City

I'd not normally highlight the Keiser (not least since he is somewhat a love him or hate him kind of person), but there is some interesting chatter on the student loans mess, and property prices. The current price ramp in London property is no doubt significantly due to the foreign capital from the mainland EU (especially France), as many flee from increasing taxes.

As for the recent UK budget, it is indeed lame that the Govt' talk of 'reducing the deficit', whilst completely refusing to address the fact that the actual total debt continues to grow each year. I guess the UK and USA still have that in common.

Goodnight from London