Wednesday 26 March 2014

3pm update - weakness into the close

US indexes have clearly broken, with the two leaders - Trans/R2K, having provided a good early signal this morning. VIX looks set to battle for a daily close in the 15s. If equity bears can close in the low sp'1850s..it will offer a straight forward gap lower into the 1840/35 zone, early Thursday.


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Summary

Well, thank the gods..today has indeed turned out in favour of the bears. A particularly rough open again, the fourth in a row...only to see yet another reversal.

Considering the breaks of trend - seen better on the daily charts, it does look like the bears are taking control...and a challenge of key support in the 1830s looks viable across Thursday/Friday.

Primary target is indeed the 1840/35 zone

If the 1830s fail..it will be an 'easy ride'..to the 1800/1790s...where there is the 61% fib' level..along with rising trend.
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...updates into the close...


3.03pm... minor chop...around 1862....bears really need to whack this 7pts lower this hour to 1855.

VIX holding gains of just 2%..not exactly inspiring.

What remains especially weak...the momo/hysteria stocks....not forgetting PLUG..or KING today.


3.15pm... so...how many of the bull rats will bail into the close? They should be concerned at the weakness in the Trans/R2K.


3.25pm.. VIX pushing higher...a close in the 15s...would make ALL the difference, and open up 16.50/17.50 tomorrow.

3.33pm....bears got no excuses now...everything is set right for weakness into the close....

seeking 1855/53..with VIX in the low 15s...that'd help setup tomorrow.


3.41pm... looking good. the rats ARE bailing into the close. look at them jump!


3.54pm.. BEARS...win....at least today.   back at the close !