sp'60min1c
Summary
Unless we break (bizarrely) tomorrow, >1875, I'm holding to the H/S outlook.
Primary downside target for the formation is 1800/1790, by end of next week.
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I am heavy short, primarily via SDS, with a short-stop around 1875.
...updates into the close
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2.56pm... VIX hourly cycle...the setup is very much in favour of the bears...all the way into the weekend
Certainly, long VIX in the 14s, is hell of a lot better than the 18s from last Friday (although I'm not playing VIX in this cycle).
3.07pm VIX 14.70s...and the 15s are now well within range by the close..along with sp'1850s.
On track..and it sets up tomorrow...very well.
3.12pm.. woah..............VIX soaring....the 16s are coming.
3.17pm... VIX 15.95.. intra high.. so far...but this is a great reversal from the failure to clear 1875.
Anyone think we'll be clearing >1875 tomorrow?
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3.22pm..the Yellen keeps on talking..and the market is now borderline sig' declines.
Perhaps most importantly..we have the weekly index cycles...turning back to bearish.
Seeking a VIX close..now in the 16s..with sp'1855/45..setting up more downside across Thurs/Friday.
3.29pm.. Battle continues...but the damage has been done. Equity bears have control..and from a purely cyclical perspective, they should be fine into the weekend.
Now its a case of when do we test the key low of 1834.
Trans/R2K, both set to close red..and this bodes well for those on the short side.
3.35pm...continued chop....but market looks exhausted...bears should be able to wrestle this lower into the close...
I'd settle for VIX >15.50 right now, along with sp'<1857
3.39pm... clown finance TV talking about the 'end of QE3'....I think the cheer leaders are starting to get twitchy.
3.43pm... Market trying to rally, but the damage has been done.
Metals weak, Gold -$25, miners suffering, GDX -3.7%
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I will hold short overnight..seeking much lower levels than here.
3.49pm...VIX struggling to hold gains, but still...the 15s are viable.
All things considered...this was still a key day...