Wednesday, 19 March 2014

2pm update - here comes the Fed

It is that time again, time for another FOMC announcement. Market expects QE-taper'3 of $10bn, taking monthly payments down to $55bn a month. However, as ever, how the market interprets this the difficult part to judge.



*updates across this should be at least somewhat dynamic this hour, with the market likely responding in kind to how Yellen copes with her first FOMC press conference.

ANY break >1875...and I'll stay out...otherwise, I'll look for an entry soon after 2pm, will seek a rollover via the 15/5min index cycles - since hourly are already rolling over.


1.59pm ... VIX gets the kick lower ..13s.

2.01pm.. Fed cut expected... market so far..unable to clear 1875.

2.07pm... Am short from sp'1867....   my short-stop is around sp'1876.  I have little interest in holding short above there.

2.16pm... picked up a secondary short-block.. SPY, puts, from sp'1867.

2.20pm.. Metals sure are weak,  Gold -$ danger of losing the primary up trend.

2.28pm... minor they battle it out.    VIX remains red, equity bears need a daily close in the 15s to clarify a clear turn.

2.36pm... The Yellen speaketh..... sp'1868....not exactly a ramp > it?

A moderately red close...will suffice, especially in the R2K/Trans.

2.40pm.. Hourly index/VIX cycles remain in favour of the bears....with the first sig' market downside tomorrow.

First key target is the key low of 1834, but I realise that is a fair way lower.

2.44pm.. VIX turns green.....looking for the 15s...that'd really clarify things.

2.46pm.. It is just about possible the bears will get some important bearish crosses in the closing hour.. which would equate to a close in the sp'1850s...and might even turn the weekly candles back to provisional bearish.

Looking okay so far....and the 1875 line is now a good 9pts higher!

2.48pm.. the question now is...who wants to go long, having been stuck <1875 for almost two full days?

A potentially exciting closing hour..seeking a break <1860.