Wednesday, 22 January 2014

Still not learnt anything

A mere five trading days ago the bears were getting overly excited on a broad equity market decline of around -1.4%. Naturally, the market rebounded the next day. What remains utterly bizarre, if not outright lame, is how the same people are still getting lost in hysteria on every 5/10pt intraday fall.



I suppose I could drone on page after page about how those touting an 'imminent market crash' are idiots, but hey, I'll still call them out on least a little.

We have a very clear short term floor of sp'1815, and baring a daily close under that, it is absolutely ludicrous for anyone to be touting even a moderate market decline of 5-7%.

At best, it looks like we might slip 3-4%..but not until after the next FOMC...and even then, that will likely be from higher levels, somewhere in the sp'1860/80 zone. As I will keep noting, I still believe the short-side is untradeable until the late spring.

re: weekly'8. I'm holding to the idea that sub'4 will be no stronger than sub'2 - from Aug'2013.  So, as long as the next cycle peak is at least >1870, then 1810/00 will likely hold as a key floor in February.

Looking ahead

There isn't any key econ-data due until Thursday.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2-3bn this Wednesday, bears...beware!

A moody permabear

I'm getting real tired of the nonsense chatter out there. It seems what few of the old school 'doomer bears' that remain continue to have memory problems. A mere week after many got smashed on a strong Tuesday rebound, we saw a moderate, but similar recovery today.

I'm really not sure who I find more idiotic, the bears who are shorting into a primary upward trend, or the bull maniacs who think there is a genuine economic recovery.

Goodnight from London