sp'daily5
Summary
If we break <1765..it will be decisive enough to....
1. open a fast and nasty mini crash wave straight to the 200 day MA (1705), and lower weekly bol (1680s)
2. If the lower weekly bol' is hit..I'll call 1850 as an intermediate top for the giant wave from Oct'2011.
3. The subsequent bounce - from the low 1700s is likely a larger sub'1..with a bounce into March/April, and a significant collapse wave in April.
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Major day ahead
Ohh, and yes...the 'bounce'..is surely already over - at the 0.38% fib (see hourly chart). Those hoping to re-short in the 1810/15 zone can likely kiss that idea goodbye. Instead, it is an issue of 'chase it lower, if break <1765).
Today is probably the most important day for the bears in over two years. Equity bears should seek a daily close in the 1750s..which will open up a Monday drop of a further significant amount.
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Have a good day everyone!
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Notable early movers: AMZN -8%, GOOG +4%...both justifiable earnings reactions
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Video update from Oscar
..indeed, he recognises he is indeed the worse analyst this week on the planet. lol
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9.00am sp' holding -24pts....at 1770.
Eyes to the VIX...bears need to see a new high in the 19s..if yes..then door is open to much higher levels.
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Let me be clear..if we do break <1765 this morning, the door is open to a real nasty drop. Hourly MACD cycle offers 10-15 trading hours of downside..and frankly...that could be all the way to 1700.
*huge QE of $5bn today, but if <1765..it won't matter. Nothing will.
9.22am... market set to open , sp -21pts @ 1773.
As noted..look to the VIX, bears need to see 19s to have confidence of a possible break <1765.
9.36am.. VIX fails to break 19s....and sp' still holding 1770s... Bears have until the typical turn time of 11am. As ever, anyone currently short..should be tightening short-stops here, in case this nonsense does not break.
9.43am... market on the edge....bears got to break lower soon..or this could all reverse. Still no VIX 19s......but real close...18.98 !