sp'60min
Summary
Well, one hour to go....lets see if all of that $5bn of QE money gets used up into the close.
The new QE-pomo schedule is actually released at 3pm.
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*despite higher indexes..the VIX has actually managed to hold moderately higher.
To anyone shorting into the weekend, it looks a reasonable risk/reward..with very clear short stops either at 1800..or somewhere in the 1815/25 zone.
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updates into the close...
3.02pm.. hourly MACD cycle sure looks vulnerable to rolling lower here. We've seen another bounce get stuck in the low/mid 1790s...
who wants to hold long into the weekend?
...thats right...I didn't think so.
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3.07pm...we're rolling over on the hourly index cycle. VIX is picking up..almost 5%
3.10pm...rolling...rolling....rolling. Lets see how many of the bull rats make a run for it, ahead of the weekend!
3.16pm.. we have a spiky candle for the 2pm hour..and we're seeing the initial downside follow through. Bulls are going to struggle to get a daily close in the 1790s.
Keep in mind, last weeks weekly close was ...1790. Hmmm
3.23pm... AMZN -10.7%... do profits actually matter to the market now?
VIX +6.7% @ 18.44. A weekly close in the 19s (above the double top)...now that would be something..will need sp <1780 though.
*I was just reviewing the pomo schedule. There is nothing much on Monday, but there is sig' QE on Tue and Wednesday.. but then nothing Thur/Friday.
So..bears can rule Mon/early Tuesday, but then side step until late Wed...and short for the big jobs data? Friday'7 market massacre?
3.31pm I smell weakness out there. VIX looks comfortable (from the equity bear perspective), whilst indexes are looking weak.
So...we're set to close net lower on the week...and the month.
3.38pm..the rats do NOT want to hold long across the weekend. Watch them jump ship into the close!
VIX is highly supportive of this view, +7.1%
3.47pm..rats.. want OUT. A weekly close <1780 would be a bonus.
What would really be a major hint of trouble... VIX 19s
3.50pm... EYES on the VIX !!! It'll trade AH until 4.15pm..so...19s are still viable.
3.54pm.. we're going to conclude the week with a rollover on the hourly index charts...it bodes well for the bears at the Monday open.
..back at the close (a whole 5mins away) :0