Friday, 31 January 2014

10am update - critical morning

The US indexes are sharply lower, and all those bear flags on the daily cycles..are close to being confirmed. A break under sp'1765 will open a fast and nasty drop to the 200 day MA..in the low 1700s. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$10. VIX has got stuck at the Monday spike high of 18.99


sp'daily5


vix'daily3


Summary

Opening black candle on the VIX, double top on the daily?

VIX has so far failed to break the Monday high of 18.99. Until that is achieved..equity bears need to be highly cautious...and tighten those trading stops!
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So..we're lower, and typically, we'll see a secondary minor wave into 11am.

If market has not broken <1765 by late morning....the bears should be looking to make a run for it.
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VERY busy day ahead...and with $5bn of QE... the market is to be treated...carefully.


10.05am..such a marginal situation. Problem remains..VIX not in the 19s...bears face major threat until that threshold is broken.

..and as is always the case..bears are battling against the clock.  QE money will be kicking in soon.


10.17am.. tick tock...tick tock....bears running out of time.   VIX still not >19.

Notable mover: CMG +14%..on very good earnings. Net margins of 10% or..which puts AMZN <1% to absolute shame!


10.29am..This is prime time for the bears...to break <1770..with VIX 19s... arguably, window of opportunity closes in the next 30/60mins.


10.36am..renewed VIX gains...almost there.........

10.43am Bears just still unable to break 19s.. anyone still short...surely should be tightening stops further here. $5bn of QE money out there today....bears got to keep that in mind.

Notable weakness: AMZN -8.2%.. so far..unable to see the usual post earnings recovery bounce.