Monday, 9 December 2013

Volatility knocked lower into the close

With equities holding onto moderate gains, the VIX saw a micro cliff fall into the close, settling -2.2% @ 13.49  Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 15-11 zone until year end. VIX remains unlikely to break into the 20s until at least late January.




*a 5min chart to illustrate what more often happens on a Friday late afternoon!


There is little to add. VIX looks set to remain low for the rest of this year. There is a reasonable chance of a brief spike higher in late Jan/early Feb. Even then, I don't particularly see much point in going long volatility.

For me, the only issue is whether the next intermediate equity top..eventually results in the VIX spiking to the 30s....or 40s. That is a good 6-9 months away though.

more later...on the indexes