Friday, 25 October 2013

Equity bulls need Dow 15800s

Whilst most other indexes all continue to break new historic highs - not least with the Transports in the 7000s, the Dow continues to lag. Those equity bulls seeking broad upside into spring 2014, should have a simple target for the near term - a weekly close in the 15800s..or higher!


Dow, weekly

Trans, weekly2, rainbow


More than anything today, it was the Transports finally breaking into the 7000s that was especially impressive. Mr Carboni was the first to tout tranny @ 7k in the early spring, I followed within a month, and for you regular readers out there, you know my 'hyper-bullish' outlook has indeed included Trans' @ 7k.

Upside across November for the tranny looks to be 7200/7300, which would equate to sp' in the low 1800s. Certainly, sp'1900s do not look viable until at least December - if briefly, before some very understandable year end profit taking.

Dow 15800s, then 16k...and 20k-moonshot?

I have to think that if we see the Dow get a weekly close in the 15800s - which certainly looks viable this November, 16k will be quickly hit, and then the door is wide open to 20, soon as late spring 2014. That would shock the equity bulls, even the cheer leading deluded maniacs on clown finance TV.

Looking ahead

There is a little trio of econ-data to conclude the week. Most importantly, we have Durable Goods Orders. There is also consumer sentiment and wholesale trade. If either of those come in a touch disappointing, it will give Mr Market the excuse it probably wants to sell lower.

*next sig' QE-pomo is next Monday.

There remains a moderate chance of a further minor down wave to the sp'1735/30 zone tomorrow. No doubt, that will merely be seen as a buying opportunity, and the market will quickly rebound, and climb across next week.

Goodnight from London

Video update from Oscar

Video update from Walker

*tech help of the day*

I use Mozilla Thunderbird email client. Lately, I don't get notifications of new mail, which is VERY annoying. I can't keep checking my inbox manually every 5-10mins.

Solution. Search add-ons for 'new mail attention 1.2.1'. Install it. When you next get new email, that will light up the taskbar icon for Thunderbird. I just thought a few of you out there might find that useful.