The market has battled hard to hold together, but with no end in sight to the US shutdown..and increasing concern over the debt ceiling, the market is breaking new lows. With the VIX in the 18s - first time since late June, this market is now in real trouble. Last line in the sand is the 1627 low.
Bear are finally showing the first decent downside power since late June, as confirmed with a VIX in the 18s..and now the 20s are viable..as early as later today.
Bulls should be fleeing for the hills now, weekly charts offer downside in the immediate term to 1600, although bears first have the key low of 1627 to break.
For those who are on the bear train, the obvious first major target is 1627...
sp'weekly7 - bearish outlook
If 1627 is taken out, it'll be the first lower low since last year, and that would really be a massive warning of trouble for Oct/Nov.
VIX update from Mr T.
Fear is indeed back.
12.22pm... VIX 20 is indeed the next key level.
In my view..if we see 23s...its all over for equity bulls this year. Upside target range 35/45 by early Nov.
...as noted...this is first significant downside power for the bears since June.
12.43pm...weak weak WEAK. Bears showing near relentless power today..and with the weekly charts now rolling over...bulls are busted.
All those touting autumnal doom...now have the door open to their deeply lower targets.
The only thing that can stop it is a rushed agreement...on the shutdown...but more importantly..the debt ceiling.