sp'weekly7 - bearish outlook
sp'weekly8 - 'best guess', post September
Summary
To start the week, we have our second blue candle on the 'rainbow' weekly charts. Certainly, we could see another 2-4 blue candles, before any significant downside in September. Most previous multi-week down cycles usually take a good month or two to solidify a top.
I am keeping an open mind on the sp'1709 high being taken out, but I'm guessing no. Market looks tired, and stuck <1700.
As for chart'8, yes..that remains the more 'balanced' best guess. I'm sure not liking the idea of a rally all the way into spring 2014, but baring a FULL end to QE-pomo, the market does look set for much higher levels.
There is a viable scenario where a Blue V wave (or however you want to count it), might put in a lower high in late Sept/October, but for now..that is a mere 'distant hope'.
Special note
The downside target in the next multi-week down wave remains the lower weekly bollinger...currently @ 1544..but rising each and every day. By mid/late September, bears are going to face a wall in the sp'1600/1575 zone.
Looking ahead
Tuesday has retail sales, import/export prices, and business inventories.
*there is no sig' QE until Thursday.
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So...I remain on the sidelines (having bailed at the Monday open of sp'1684), and will be seeking an index re-short, possibly this Thur/Friday, but maybe as late as next Monday. I'm in no hurry, whilst volatility remains this low.
Goodnight from London