Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed well off the morning lows, with the sp' managing a fractional gain, +1.4pts @ 1691. The Trans was strongest with a gain of 0.5%, but the R2K was weak -0.5%. Near term looks like a sub'4 wave is now complete, with a small upward fifth next week.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Perhaps most interesting is that the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower for the ninth day. With the market a mere 7pts shy of its recent historic high, the MACD cycle is arguably indicative of the bulls merely consolidating the indexes sideways, whilst the daily cycles are reset from overbought levels.

If the sp'500 count is correct - and I've reasonable confidence in it, then we're set for a sub'5 to the upside next week. Weekly charts will be offering 1715/20 next week....so the bulls have around 2% to look for.

Next week will be all about the FOMC, GDP Q2, and the monthly jobs data. It is possible the bulls will rally for another 'few weeks', but I'm guessing no. I think this nonsense from the sp'1560 low concludes next Tue/Wed in the sp'1710/20s.

...a little more later..to conclude the week