Volatility slips into the weekend

With the indexes rallying (rather strongly) from morning lows, the VIX failed to hold minor gains of 5%, and closed -1.9% @ 12.72. Across the week, the VIX gained 1.4%. If sp'1700s, then VIX looks set for the 11s (briefly), before the next surge in Aug/September.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

For the equity bears out there, the VIX hourly and daily charts tell the story of failed hopes.

Once again, despite the VIX declining, the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for a fourth consecutive day, and is now just 3-4 days away from breaking to into positive territory.

*best guess is that the current equity up wave from sp'1560 will complete by the FOMC of next Wednesday. From there, VIX should first make a play for a few daily closes in the 15/16s.

The big question is whether VIX can even break 20 in the next equity multi-week down cycle. I'm guessing it will, but only the low 20s seem viable.

more later..on those resilient indexes