CRB, weekly
CRB vs SP'500
Summary
For the CRB, you can clearly see the mid-term trend is still to the downside - from the spring 2011 peak, and we've seen this down trend reflected in this past weeks decline.
The break levels are pretty clear...
Inflationists should be seeking CRB >300
Deflationists .. <270.
A few weekly closes above either level, should provide good initial confirmation for where commodities are headed into 2014.
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RE: Commodities vs the SP'500
The discrepancy is indeed severe, and at some point the two are going to re-sync. The only question is whether commodities play catch up to equities, or equities drop like a rock - or a combination of the two.
Considering that QE is likely to continue into 2014 (if not 2015/16), best guess would be that commodities will eventually start to ramp, although not necessarily at a rapid pace relative to rising equities.
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more later today...on the US weekly indexes