Thursday 27 June 2013

Volatility down a bit more

With the main indexes rallying for a third straight day, the VIX was weak across the entire day, closing -2% @ 16.86. Near term trend still favours the equity bulls. Those on the short side should be seeking a weekly VIX close in the 20s, but that does seem very unlikely now.


vix'60min



vix'daily3



Summary

*perhaps most interestingly, we closed with a small reversal candle on the daily chart - right on the rising channel line, that goes all the way back to the mid May low.
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VIX has already been effectively smashed down, and is now in 'trundle' mode. The only issue now is when will the next up cycle begin, and can it take out the recent high in the 22s?

Considering the power seen in the past 3 days, VIX 22 will be difficult to hit, and indeed, even if equities break a new low to the sp'1530s, the VIX could put in a divergent lower high.

Its certainly something to watch for next week.
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more later on the indexes