sp'weekly7 - near term bearish count
sp'60min'3 - broad outlook
Summary
So, the bull maniacs managed to hit sp'1606. That's fine by me, in fact I was indeed hoping we'd open higher - since I was looking for a new short-entry.
I took an early morning entry @ sp'1601, it was pretty good to see the market almost immediately drop to 1595, but then it appeared that it was back to algo-bot melt mode, and we crawled back higher into the late afternoon.
All things considered, I am VERY content with my two rather huge bearish positions. I've shorted after a 40pt bounce, and that is surely 'reasonable' on any basis.
Looking ahead
Thursday has 3 pieces of econ-data, the usual jobless claims, personal income/outlays, and also home sales (10am). Tomorrow does have significant QE, and so those on the short side need to be a little careful.
Even if we are -10/15pts by late morning, there will be very significant risk of a 7-10pt intra-day bounce.
**Friday should be the better day, with no sig' QE, and end-month/quarter issues. After all, who wants to hold long across the weekend?
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*I remain HEAVY short the main indexes from sp'1601, and long VIX from the 17.50s, seeking an exit by the Friday close, preferably with sp'1550 & VIX 23/25
However, any break >sp'1610, opens up a further move to 1620/25, in which case, I'll just have to hold across the weekend, and probably won't see 1550/30 until late next week.
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Goodnight from London