Wednesday 26 June 2013

Still on schedule for lower levels

Despite the rally from sp'1560 to 1588, this is probably just a bounce, and primary outlook remains unchanged. The sp'1550/30 zone looks very viable within the next few days, although the bigger weekly cycle target remains the lower bollinger, currently @ 1495.


sp'weekly7 - near term count'1



sp'60min'3 - near term hourly outlook


Summary

An interesting day to watch, although more so, for individual stocks - like BKS, CNX, and MRO.

The bulls have now had almost two full days of bounce, and I'm still guessing we'll cycle to much lower levels within the next few days.
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Keep those bond yields in mind.

Just a brief reminder on the 10yr US treasury note..


Despite the market rallying, the 10yr yield is still 2.60..a mere 15bps from breaking the next critical level of 2.75. If we see 2.80s at ANY point, then a further 40/60bps look viable within days..if not 'hours'.


Looking ahead

There are a few econ-data points tomorrow, the main one being the final reading 'attempt' for Q1 GDP, market is expecting an unchanged number of +2.4%. There is a mid-sized QE this Wednesday..and Thursday, so equity bears will be fighting the Fed to some extent.

*perhaps most notable, there are three Fed' reserve people talking tomorrow, and no doubt those comments will be listened to by Mr Market.
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Seeking a major re-short

I am looking to launch a major short of this market early tomorrow, somewhere in the sp'1595/1605 area. I no longer think the gap in the mid sp'1620s is going to be hit/filled in the current bounce.

Goodnight from London
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Bonus video...

In my somewhat random youtube viewing just earlier, I noticed the following, and I think its worth highlighting.





There are times when I wonder if my econ/market/stock postings are actually 'entertaining' enough. Since I started doing this, some 15 months ago, I have tried my best, I really have.

Am I doing enough? Anyone......anyone?             ;)