sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
With the turn in the futures (from Dow -60), everything remains on track.
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The one issue we have this morning are comments from two Fed' people at 10am.
Considering futures are higher, I'm wondering if that will be the excuse the market wants for a full reversal to RED indexes. Or...if the gains will intensify, and that we'll be making a play for 1600/10 later in the day.
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What will I be looking for ?
VIX, a reversal candle in the lower gap zone, 17.25/16.75....best seen on the hourly chart.
Sp' getting stuck just under the old key low of 1598
I'm seeking to pick up a HEAVY index-short, and also long VIX. I've not been long volatility since January, so this is an 'old school' trade for me. Its sure been a while!
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Arguably, the 'don't trade in the first 30mins rule', is good, but if I see black candles on the R2K/Trans hourly (where they usually appear first), and a reversal candle on the VIX early on...I'll be sorely tempted.
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Good wishes for what will be an important day !
Just noticed an update from Oscar
Naturally..he is bullish, ;)
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UPDATE 8.42am.. GDP revised down from 2.4 to 1.8%....which is somewhat of a surprise to Mr Market.
sp +6pts, we're now looking at 1594.
8.59am... Oil sure is weak, -0.5% now, sp +8pts, which is impressive considering the lousy GDP data.
9.21am..there go some stops..and we're sp +12... @ 1600.
Next level is the old 1608 'moderately higher low'.
There is also the 50% fib retrace around 1607.
I am in NO hurry to hit buttons right now. Good bears..need patience ;)
9.37am.. sp'1603.. hmm..... VIX is near the lower gap level
Eyes..sharp
9.42am LONG VIX... from 17.54
9.45am.. SHORT the main market, from sp'1601
Thats it...I've made my move.. am HEAVY short this market, now ....I wait.
I can sustain a move to sp'1620s...if I'm wrong, but the smaller cycles look pretty maxed out already.
Long day ahead....
As it is, I will look to hold short..overnight..and across all of Thursday, possibly all the way into the Friday close.
First downside target is the 1560 low, then 1550..and the mid-april low of 1536.