Monday, 15 April 2013

Volatility explodes

The market increasingly struggled across the day, and with a particularly weak close, the VIX exploded higher. In the 15 mins of AH trading, the VIX closed +43% @ 17.27. This ranks as one of the strongest VIX daily closes ever, and a very real warning that the market has 'issues'.




Suffice to say, the closing hour - and those 15 minutes of after-hours trading, was a real mess in market land. The VIX soared, and the close in the 17s is now the first real sign that the market is in trouble.

Next target is the recent spike in the 19s. Yet, what is infinitely more important is a break into the 20s. A weekly close in the 20s would suggest VIX 30/40s are viable within the next month or so - which is something we've not seen in over 18mths.

Daily index cycles are weak, but there is VERY strong support @ sp'1538. If that holds tomorrow, VIX will cool back down into the 15/13s.

Any failure to hold 1538..and VIX will likely break into the 20s, which will really open a hornets nest of trouble later this week.

more later...on the main indexes