For those watching, I think we're seeing some VERY distinct 'little earthquakes' in market land. We've seen Copper break a few weeks ago. The precious metals are now smashed, and Oil is following.
I expect equities to follow, yet..as ever, with the QE-POMO, declines are to be treated with HIGH caution..at least until we're <1538
Best guess for this morning...we level out around sp'1575, with VIX in the mid 13s. Then its merely a case of seeing how high the usual 'latter day recovery' takes us.
*I am short Oil - from last Friday afternoon, USO, and will seek an exit at the open.
Near term outlook is mixed, and I'll sure take profits when I have them.
Mid-term objective on USO is 28/27 by June...which would imply Oil in the 80/75 zone..at least.
updates across the day.. and week.
Good wishes for the trading week ahead
UPDATE 9.19am...Empire state data came in pretty bad, still not quite recessionary, but it sure ain't bullish for the tail end of Q1.
SP' looks set to open -8pts or so..and maybe that'll increase to 13/15pt by 11am. Considering the 15/60min cycles are already low, its hard to believe we'll close down more than 1% today.
Regardless, I look to exit USO (short) at the open, and then sit back....for most of the day.
9.35am... EXITED USO short. Now..lets see how we trade into the afternoon.