sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Hourly index/VIX charts remain highly suggestive that underlying price momentum is swinging back to the bears, although until we're trading back <sp'1570, bears really can't be confident that a new 5-7 day down cycle is underway.
Best bear case today, seems to be a close in the low 1560s, with VIX in the 17s. I realise that is a bold scenario, and it would make for a very clean reversal from the recent multi-day ramp.
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So..lets see where GDP comes in out first....
UPDATE 8.30am
Headline GDP Q1 : 2.5%. somewhat below estimates, but still clearly positive, and well above stall speed.
I can't fathom how it came in that high, regardless, bulls should consider it more than acceptable. Futures are a touch lower on the data.
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*I plan to take a USO short at the open..
USO'60min
Primary target remains 28/27, although that is highly dependent on a new index cycle lower, with a hit of sp'1480 within the next few weeks.
9.45am.. Am short USO, from the low 33s..
VIX breaks into the 14s..with SP..on the threshold of breaking lower channel support @ 1580