Friday 26 April 2013

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. (as at 8.15am) Futures are a touch lower, sp -3pts, we're currently set to open at 1581. GDP data is due shortly, and that will likely have a considerable effect on Mr Market for today, and perhaps the next few weeks.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

Hourly index/VIX charts remain highly suggestive that underlying price momentum is swinging back to the bears, although until we're trading back <sp'1570, bears really can't be confident that a new 5-7 day down cycle is underway.

Best bear case today, seems to be a close in the low 1560s, with VIX in the 17s. I realise that is a bold scenario, and it would make for a very clean reversal from the recent multi-day ramp.

--
So..lets see where GDP comes in out first....


UPDATE 8.30am

Headline GDP Q1 : 2.5%.  somewhat below estimates, but still clearly positive, and well above stall speed.

I can't fathom how it came in that high, regardless, bulls should consider it more than acceptable. Futures are a touch lower on the data.

--
*I plan to take a USO short at the open..

USO'60min



Primary target remains 28/27, although that is highly dependent on a new index cycle lower, with a hit of sp'1480 within the next few weeks.


9.45am.. Am short USO, from the low 33s..

VIX breaks into the 14s..with SP..on the threshold of breaking lower channel support @ 1580