sp'daily5a - H/S formation idea
sp'daily5b - best guess
sp'weekly2, rainbow
Summary
I'll start with the third chart, the 'rainbow' (elder impulse) weekly chart. With further gains, the weekly candle has now flipped to outright bullish with a green candle. If we close tomorrow with a green candle, I have to say, I will be somewhat despondent.
Bears REALLY need a Friday close back under sp'1570. That's 1% lower, certainly that's easily viable, but...the current trend is obviously UP, today being day'5.
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As for the daily5a and b charts, I will hold to a possible H/S formation, unless we break above the 1597 high. Obviously, we almost did that today, and if the market considers the GDP data tomorrow 'acceptable', then sp'1600s look a given..it has to be said.
Looking ahead
US Q1 GDP data is released @ 8.30am. It could potentially shape the next few trading weeks. Market is expecting 3.1%. I still find that almost impossible to believe. Baring some 'accounting gimmicks', how could the US economy have been growing 3%..or even 1% in the first quarter?
Just think about how things felt across January-March. Many of the econ data-points during that time sure didn't look like 3% growth to me.
Here is something to consider. Even if Q1 data comes in marginally negative tomorrow, will that be enough to send this market into another 5-7 day down cycle? Or, would the market take the bad data, spin it, and build further gains on the notion that the Fed is again less likely to end the QE programs?
Friday will be interesting. I'll be here,..and maybe YOU will be here too!
Goodnight from London