1pm update - a close under 1570 will be tough

Market is battling to break back into the sp'1580s. VIX is holding minor gains of 3% in the low 14s. Precious metals and Oil appear somewhat broken, and both look vulnerable into the close. Bears should still aim for a close <1570, but that does look overly difficult.


sp'daily

vix'daily3

Summary

More than anything right now, the VIX daily chart is probably the most support for a near term 'bearish market' outlook. We are very close to seeing a confirmed turn.

First target are the low 17s. I suppose thats viable on Monday.
--

I remain heavy short, SPY, USO, will hold across the weekend.

--
UPDATE 1.28pm..looks like might just be building a tiny wave'2 into the close.

A close in the 1580s would be disappointing, but it'd set up much lower levels on Monday in the 1550s. We shall see.