spdaily5b - best guess
sp'weekly2, rainbow
vix,weekly
Summary
Today was a real mind-frak..to be honest.
I took the simple decision to merely exit a USO (long) trade at the open, and sit the rest of the day out. I still think we have a VERY clear 5 waves lower, from what I now am calling a top @ sp'1597. There are many other issues that support weakness in the main US and world markets into May, and I won't be changing my mid-term bearish outlook any time soon.
I do of course seek a 2-3 day bounce - forming a sub'2 wave (see daily5b), which - since we closed lower today, now seems likely not to complete until next Mon/Tuesday.
There are certainly days when I simply can't stomach the instability, and today was one of them.
Small H/S, within big H/S ?
I had this idea recently, but ditched it when we broke above the sp'1576 high. I think it probably deserves being highlighted again though.
sp'daily5
One major key issue is extrapolating viable downside - see pink lines, first set is from 1597/1536 - which gives 1485. Second set is 1597/1485...which gives 1380. I have to say the latter number would make for a pretty exciting May. It would take the market to marginally negative on the year, and I can only imagine the near terror on the faces of those cheer leading maniacs on clown finance TV.
US, GDP Q1 - weak, weak, WEAK!
I thought I'd end today with a few thoughts on the big economic picture. We have Q1 GDP data out next Friday Apr'26. The Q4 GDP data - to the surprise of many, originally came in a little negative, but (I think) the second revision was +0.4%. Well below 'stall speed', and clearly, borderline recession on any basis.
My guess for next Fridays data point is for -0.5 to -1.0%. I think that would make for a real wake up call to the mainstream, and be a clear warning that Q4s weakness was not a one off. The EU is a basket case, and that has to have been affecting the US for some considerable time now. I would be stunned if GDP came in over +2%, and even 1% looks like a stretch.
There are possible implications for Gold/Silver, in that if the main market sells down on a lousy economic outlook, perhaps the metals will use it as an excuse to ramp 'flight to safety'?, after their recent extreme drops? Its just an idea, and I will add, I sure won't be trading them.
Looking ahead
There is no econ-data to end the week, and of course, its option expiration for April. It could certainly be a bit choppy across the day, and especially in the closing hour.
I will throw out a vague guess that the market makers might want to nail/pin the SPY and SP'500 @ 155/1550, that is just over 8pts higher. Similarly, for AAPL, I'd guess they will try to pin it @ $400, to nuke all the call and put holders - at what is a very obvious key strike level.
So, lets see if we close the week @ sp'1550, with AAPL @ $400.
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*I do not intend to trade tomorrow, and indeed, look to wait for a full re-short in the sp'1570s, with VIX back in the 15s. As ever, I will try to keep an open mind to things, but broadly speaking, I will be looking to trade the daily5b chart outlook.
Finally, it was good to see some more comments today, always good to hear from some of you!
Goodnight from London