Daily Index Cycle update

The market opened moderately higher with the sp @ 1554, but it quickly failed, and there were some consistent little waves lower across the day. The critical 1538 low from March was briefly breached, although the Dow and Transports still held above their equivalent levels.


IWM

SP'daily5

Trans

Summary

So..issue of the day was clearly the breach of the March'19 low of sp'1538.57.

I have to say I was very surprised by the break under yesterdays low of 1543, but still, I wasn't going to chase it lower. The hourly charts were simply NOT looking good for the bears today, and I am very much a more cautious trader lately.

The close back above 1538 level was important to the bulls, and I will hold to the original count/outlook. I am seeking another break into the low sp'1570s, which probably equates to VIX back in the 16/15s.

However, with today's further weakness, any such bounce - which is likely to take at least two trading days, will mean there is no point shorting tomorrow.

Right now, it would seem bears will need to be patient for the sp'1570s, which might not come until Tuesday.
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a little more later..covering the outlook for next week - when things look set to get exciting.