Friday 19 April 2013

1pm update - choppy afternoon

Market is seeing a micro pull back, and the VIX is trying to crawl up a little. I still think we'll close at sp'1550, although VIX might well slip lower into the close - as its often 'mysteriously' whacked 3-5% lower in the closing 1-3 minutes.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

Its turning into a rather quiet day.

My targets of sp'1550..and AAPL $400 for April opex...look very probable.
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A poster asked '....One thing I cant figure out is with Europe in a recession How are many countries stock markets at multi year highs. It makes no sense. I have not heard anybody comment on the subject either' - Reece, Phoenix


- I can only say as someone in Europe, that even calling it a 'basket case' would be overly positive. The southern Med' states all have chronic unemployment, and there are some very disturbing stories of the poverty in Greece. Its almost borderline third world now.

Why are markets holding together? Largely mainstream denial/delusion, money printing, and partly this was the natural up cycle from 2009. As many recognise though, we're now due a recession, they occur every 4-6 yrs, and of course, the EU is already in recession.

Look to US GDP data next Friday. A negative number would have to get more people to question the mid-term outlook.

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*Always good to hear from anyone, I highly suggest a disque account, since comments won't appear otherwise (the disque comments over-rides the normal blogger comments).
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