Thursday, 4 April 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The bulls are unquestionably losing control, with most indexes closing around 1-1.5% lower. The Transports have followed the R2K, and also broken key rising support. Oil saw a sharp drop of 2.5%, and is now likely starting a major down cycle across April...and into May.





So..we now have two indexes having broken key rising support..and indeed..the break of the Transports from the support that stretches all the way back to the post election - mid-November very important.

Without question, this multi-month cycle is coming to an end. R2K was the first warning - it put in its high 3 weeks ago, and now we have two indexes broken.

I've no doubt now that the SP, Dow..and Nasdaq will follow across the next few days.

In terms of the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, we're very low on the R2K/Transports, wouldn't be too surprising if they get stuck soon. Yet the other indexes have a viable 3-5 days downside..which would take us all the way into the end of next week - when the tax year ends.

a little more later