Thursday, 4 April 2013

Bears are starting to seize control

With the Transports also breaking key rising support, the bears can start to be increasingly confident that a mid-term cyclical top is being put in. Whether we briefly test 1576 by the Friday close, seems largely inconsequential. This market is surely headed lower from current levels.

sp'weekly3, Keltner bands

sp'daily5b - best guess


Again, I think the weekly Keltner chart is useful to keep in mind. The lower band will be extremely hard to break on any initial down cycle. On any basis, bears can NOT expect any lower than the 1440/ things currently are.

Indeed, by early May, that lower K' band will have risen, and be somewhere around 1460/80....which is very much where my primary target is @ 1470.

WTIC Oil - also broken

see USO, daily2

I was short USO from last night, and had been looking for a decline to the 34.40s..which I got..and that was indeed where I exited this morning. Yet, Oil fell across the day, and it was somewhat depressing to see just how low USO was by the close. I really didn't expect that level of drop on the first move.

Regardless, I will look to short Oil again on the next bounce, which could be as high (ironically) as my exit today around 34.40, although if the market is weak..maybe it'll struggle just to hit 34.0

Lesson of the day...'stops are good..but not too tight'.

Looking ahead

There really isn't much tomorrow in terms of data, just the usual weekly jobs numbers..not that many consider them too important anymore.

The hourly index chart (see earlier post) does offer significant upside potential don't be surprised if we open back in the sp'1560s. Whether we can still make a play for 1576..I've no idea.

Regardless of whether 1576 will yet be hit, I am now very confident of the next 4-6 weeks.

*I will be looking to re-short the next equity/Oil bounce, and will be focusing on the 15/60min cycle charts tomorrow..more than ever.

Goodnight from London

Video Bonus...'Risk', (39mins)

I finally got around to watching this from Grant Williams. Its relatively new, although its already been highlighted on Zerohedge. I know nothing about the narrator, but its worth seeing. In particular, it deals with the issue of fractional banking and gold leasing.