11am update - sub'5..nearing completion

It looks like the original 5 wave decline was right. Bears should arguably be seeking an exit across the next hour or so. This market seems very unlikely to break 1538 today..or this week. VIX is +22%..back in the 17s, which is something of a surprise.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So, a little snap lower, and the bulls are getting a little rattled.

I am indeed surprise at the power of the VIX right now.

There is one theory that yesterday was merely a sub'2, in which case today we'll slice right through key support 1538..and just keep falling to 1480 - by THIS FRIDAY.

My best guess..is that won't be the case
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*I am merely on the sidelines now.

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UPDATE 11.13am...sp'1446s..we are right at the zone where I'd like to see this level out.

ANY break <1538..would be a critical break, and would invalidate the current outlook. If thats the case, you'd see VIX in the 20s by the close...

but..I'm still guessing the original count IS correct.
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11.28am... I'm making a bold move. Going long OIL (via USO)..

Seeking the low 32s tomorrow/Friday.

I just can't see the indexes breaking <1538, in which case we generally see upside into Friday opex.
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