Thursday, 11 April 2013

3pm update - Transports and R2K...weak

Whilst the headline indexes hold moderate gains, the Transports and R2K are now moderately bearish on the hourly cycle. There should be at least some weakness into the close, and most of Friday morning. VIX is trying to build on the current fractional gains.


Trans'60min



R2K, 60min


VIX'60min


Summary

So far then, Transports is the first index to break the rising channel that began last Friday morning. R2K looks set to follow early tomorrow.

Whether the headline indexes will continue to ignore - what ARE the two market leaders, is to be seen.

For those still bearish...a short-stop at the 1598 level is pretty obvious.
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updates into the close...

 *I will hold Oil (short) overnight..seeking an exit in the 32.70s...tomorrow.



Indexes want to rally still, but...so far.. that 1597 high..holding.

3.25pm...Sp'500...a choppy top on the hourly..its a viable short-trade, with stop @ 1597/98.

Oil looks weak into the close, and for me, that at least takes the edge off what has been a difficult few days.

One thing that does seem clear, IWM is probably a better index short than the SP', the latter of which is possibly more prone to POMO/media hysteria, ..maybe.
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3.35pm... Sp'500, its certainly due a down cycle tomorrow, but its going to be tough to get a weekly close <1580, which remains something I will be focused on.



back at the close