Thursday, 11 April 2013

12pm update - are we done @ 1597.35 ?

This mornings follow through is again particularly discouraging to the bears, but for those watching the daily cycles..we might be 'there'. However, until we take out the sp'1538 low...bears really can't get excited. USD remains weak..not that this is helping a particular weak Oil.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



USO, daily2


Summary

First, I want to highlight a comment from poster 'Christian Gustafson'

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In 2007, the weekly top Bollinger was at 1580; we topped 4 pts below it at 1576.This week, Google charts shows the top Bollinger @1601. We just reversed at 1597.35, again 4 pts below'
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I certainly also place a lot of emphasis on the standard Bollinger bands - especially the weekly and monthly ones.

Did we just see a hugely important top? As always..it might take a VERY considerable time to be sure..

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VIX looks set to snap higher in the next hour or two. A close in the 13s would be useful.

Oil is an interesting spot of weakness..and along with Copper..I'm still inclined for the deflationary outlook.

No doubt the QE-POMO is keeping things together to a large extent.
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*its certainly pleasing to see USO start to cliff fall. ;)

time for lunch!
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UPDATE 12.30pm...VIX is outside of the down channel...bears need a close >13.50..that seems possible, if not today, then tomorrow.