Wednesday 10 April 2013

3pm update - closing hour to a rough day

With the sp'500 breaking through 1576, and comfortably holding the upper 1580s for some hours, regardless of how we close today, it was another rough day for the bears. Meanwhile, dollar holds moderate gains, VIX is still 2% lower, and the metals (esp' Gold) look weak.


sp'60min



vix'60min



USO, daily2


Summary

I think I speak for many, when I say that today felt like the market went parabolic. Its almost true, at least for the morning session.

That's the scary thing now, there is no ceiling any longer on the sp'500, its gone. The big 2007 top has been taken out, and bulls have infinite open air to the upside.

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*I'm going to refrain from meddling in the indexes for 'some time'. I'll certainly follow them, but for now, I'm reverting back to Oil and the metals (short side only).

I hold USO (short) overnight.
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The updated Fibonacci chart for the sp'...



There is a count on there still, but I'm really not sure about that anymore.

What is disturbing is that even 1500 now looks a long way down. Hell, we couldn't even break 1538 last Friday, how we gonna do it on the next cycle from yet another higher level?

UPDATE 3.20pm...

You can see the VIX is TRYING to coil back upward.


A close outside of that down channel in the 13s should be the aim for bears tomorrow. VIX 13s would still be a lousy way to close this week though. Until we're in the 16s, bears face a fearless market...lost in delusion.

3.40pm...Did you notice the miners, see GDX..almost -4%....headed for 25/20 across the months ahead..assuming the precious metals remain weak.

What a train wreck of the sector.

back at the close.