Thursday, 18 April 2013

2pm update - inclination remains to the upside

Mr Market is certainly still struggling, but then neither are the bears smashing their way through the critical 1538 level. General upside into Friday opex is likely, with the sp'1570s, and VIX 14/13s. Precious metals and Oil are holding gains, and will probably build upon them,


sp'15min



sp'60min


Summary

Certainly, market is kinda weak, but bears have surely had their fun for this week. We have opex tomorrow, and you just know the market makers will want to kill as many of the put options as possible.

Baring a VIX breaking into the 18s, those currently long, should have no concerns for holding overnight.
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2.10pm... Its important to note that whilst the SP' broke a new low this morning, the Transports AND R2K did not.

IWM'60min


It counts pretty good as a 5 wave, with a target of 91.25/92.00 by the Friday close. Target for next week is 86/84, which will be a good 5-6% lower - aka, sp'1500/1480

2.15pm..yes, another wave of weakness, but again, not all indexes have broken the recent lows..and unless VIX in the 18s...I'm still looking for upside.

Those bears still short should arguably be tightening stops..and looking to get kicked.


USO is still kinda weak, but its still battling higher overall.


Target remains the 31.75/32.25 zone, at which point I seek a reshort.

2.25pm..sp'1539s....1pt away from the critical March 19'th low.!

I STILL guessing we will rally..but yes...this is very much 'on the edge'.