12pm update - its (probably) a fake

Baring a break under the morning low of 1541, and the even more critical 1538 (March'19) low, this market is merely messing with traders heads today. I hold to the original 'bounce into opex' outlook, seeking sp'1570s with VIX falling into the 14/13s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

A real mess of a morning in market land, and I'm pretty confident its just a nasty fake out. Kicking the weak bulls out, and sucking in the bears hoping to chase it lower.

I just can't see any major downside until next week.
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Whilst some indexes broke new lows today, the VIX was 3 ticks UNDER its 17.90 Wednesday high . That is probably the tell.
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VIX update



Interesting day, I remain holding that its just a fake out, with upside still coming into Friday opex.


12.19pm... market still holding above the earlier 1541 spike low.

If the bulls can break into the mid 1550s later, that will secure upside into late Friday.