Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes failed to hold opening gains, and we saw some moderate declines by late morning. Yet the usual latter day recovery did appear, and the main indexes closed with only very minor declines of around 0.2%. Near term trend looks weak.


IWM

SP'daily5

Trans

Summary

Today was a lot more volatile than I had expected. No doubt, a lot of it was due to the ongoing developments - or should that be 'Cypriot tragedy?', but there is clearly some underlying weakness on top of that.

Key rising support - by end of March, is sp'1520. I'd certainly guess we'll break that lower channel within the early part of April, which should open up the primary target of the 1470s.

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The weekly charts are looking increasingly weak, and even if we close this week with just these moderate declines, it'd be the first real warning of downside trouble for April/May.

a little more later...