VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
The daily MACD (blue bar histogram) was ticking higher yesterday, and I was really not giving it enough credence. Despite the VIX closing well off the highs, the daily MACD cycle is still due to go positive cycle at the Wednesday open.
From a bearish perspective, I am still concerned that we'll see a final index wave higher, with a VIX back in the low 12s, even the 11s.
So, for now, I'm not meddling with any VIX long positions, certainly not ahead of the FOMC announcement.
VIX explosion due?
There remains a very reasonable chance of the VIX hitting the 17/18s this week.
If the 'Cyprus' thing starts to spiral and cause some upset this Friday..VIX has a real chance at breaking 20..and then that's where the real fun starts.
On a break of 20. first soft target would be the Dec'28th high of 23.23
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More later..on the indexes