sp'daily7 - fib levels
sp'weekly
VIX'weekly
Summary
Near term price action remains a bit choppy. I still think there is a fair possibility of putting in one final marginally higher high. The sp'1580s now seem out of range, but the 1570s look viable on a crazy 'QE inspired' spike.
VIX weekly chart is set up very nicely for the doomer bears. First primary target would be the 200 weekly MA @ VIX 20/21. A weekly close above that level would bode for 30/40s, but I don't expect that for months..if at all this year.
Looking ahead to the 'Fed day'
Wednesday afternoon will indeed be a major market event.
The Fed will issue their primary press release on interest rates/policy @ 2pm. There will also be an economic outlook report, and (I believe) the Ben Bernanke will appear to do one of his periodic press conferences around 2.15pm.
I think its fair to assume the Fed will be looking to placate the markets mild concern that QE might actually end this year.
If the Bernanke can convince the market that QE will continue into 2014, then we have a very significant chance of seeing the indexes jump into the 1560s..even the 1570s by the close. That would make for a nice cyclical peak.
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In terms of price action, trying to trade Wednesday is arguably a major 'no no'.
*I'm holding a small block of USO (long Oil), seeking an exit early Wednesday, and aim to then sit back, and see how the market trades..I do not intend to take any major new positions.
On any basis, I think the more conservative bears should be looking to re-short the indexes/long VIX no earlier than Thursday morning, after the FOMC induced price swings are out of the way.
Fed days are pretty dynamic and exciting, so updates will be even more frequent tomorrow. Be sure to check in often!
Video Bonus...from Mr Farage
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Goodnight from London