Thursday 24 January 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed somewhat mixed. The transports and Rus'2000 - both the leaders since mid December, seem especially tired, and closed with a touch of weakness. What is clear, there is still no sign of the current upward trend ending.


IWM



Dow



SP, daily5



Trans


Summary

A pretty tiresome day of nothing.

*The gains in the Dow were almost entirely due to IBM.
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So...does this keep going?

Right now, there is nothing that is supportive of the current upward trend ending. Even a minor retracement to the sp'1450/40 area would do nothing to dent the underlying bullish momentum.

It has to be asked again, just how crazy high could this market get by the late spring/early summer? Are we looking at sp'1600s, even 1700s, on some kind of mass hysteria wave?

Keep in mind that we know the following...

-The debt ceiling WILL be raised, whether by the house, or by exec order
-The Fed is throwing 45bn of new money via POMO every month, and this ain't ending
-If there is any sign of economic weakness, the Fed will have an excuse to increase purchases to 100/125bn a month.


Yes, there are endless economic time-bombs ticking out there, and probably a whole flock of black swans even Taleb hasn't thought of, yet...baring any of those...this market is comfortably battling higher.

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A little more later