Volatility fractionally higher

Despite the indexes closing higher yet again, the VIX held steady across the day. The VIX closed +0.03%, to settle @ 12.46. These remain bizarrely low levels for the VIX, and a brief spike higher 'sometime soon' still seems likely.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

The hourly chart is showing a VIX that is flat lining. Certainly, if the indexes keep rising, sp'1510/20 would probably kick the VIX <12. However, the indexes are looking tired, and upside is very likely no more than another 2% at most.

The Daily MACD cycle on the VIX is still ticking higher, but the recovery is slow. If might not be until next week until we go + cycle again... at which point the VIX should see a few days spiking higher. The only issue is how high.

A brief move into the low 16s still seems a valid target. VIX 20' now seems highly improbable until April/May.

More later..on the indexes.