Monday 3 December 2012

10am update - failed opening bounce?

The opening gains are annoying, not least since the Thursday highs have now been broken on most indexes. VIX is holding mostly stable though, although the dollar is back <80.


sp'60min



trans'60min


Summary

The one notable sign of weakness so far this morning is in the transports, which has not only put in a brief failed spike, but did not break the Thursday high. Now red.....interesting.
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Bears should be desperate for a close <1415.

I'm sure not pleased with what I'm seeing so far today.


sp'daily5b - scenarios


Surely not 'A'  ? urghh
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UPDATE 10.25am Transports is rolling over on the daily. Bears should be watching this sector/index VERY closely.

*I'll probably highlight it again, but the tranny was warning of trouble this morning right from the open, and was 'leading' the other indexes by around 3-5 minutes. For the fast day-traders out there, it remains a very good early warning.





See daily MACD (histogram) cycle, rolling lower, at current rate, the bigger declines will be late this week, Thur/Friday, when the cycle goes negative.

*VIX is a touch higher already.