Volatility lower..yet again

With the indexes closing higher, the VIX slipped again, closing lower by 2.9%, to settle @ 15.06. On any basis we're surely close to seeing a multi-day up cycle in the VIX, and there will then again be the issue of whether we can see a break through the concrete wall that is the VIX 20 threshold


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

At some point we're going to see some really large up moves in the VIX. It might be next week, but it might not be until next year. It really is difficult to say.

What is clear though, the VIX is at a VERY low level, and thus options (especially front month, and out to Jan/Feb) are relatively cheap.

If there is a 'surprise' upset - especially if its related to lack of resolution of the fiscal cliff, then the VIX is going to see a number of 20, even 30% up days. Although as noted a few times recently, even a 30% VIX move wouldn't quite get us to VIX 20!

More later...on the indexes.