Monday, 19 November 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are now showing sp +12pts, we're set to open in the low 1370s. There is some housing data at 10am, and it does seem likely we'll be lurking in the 1370s for most of the morning at least.




Anything over 1375 would break the upper channel on my hourly index charts.

Those bears seeking a re-short today, should wait at least until after the housing data, to give the market some time to at least exhaust the opening ramp.

Whether we tumble lower into the close, perhaps even closing red, that is the big question today.

Best guess -as based on transports, we are in a minor wave'4, with a final fifth to play out between now and the Wednesday close.

Good wishes for this shortened 3.5 trading day 'thanksgiving' week*.

back at 10am...just after the housing data!
*market closed Thursday, and only trades Friday 9.30am>1pm.

UPDATE 8.35am futures now sp +15pts, we're set to open 1374/75, at the borderline of the descending channel. 

UPDATE 9.05am futures +16pts. We're breaking out of the channel.

It would appear my original outlook was right all along.


So..with the gains as they are..even before housing data..we could testing the big 200 day MA @1380 later today, or tomorrow

With my primary target of 1345 hit, the next original target was sp'1400/25 - perhaps a back test of the Oct'2011 rising support.

If that is the case, then bears MUST be patient for another 4-6 trading days, effectively not until the very tail end of November. things are...I'm not set to sit this week on the sidelines. I won't go long...too much risk of a news wire report whacking this market lower. What I won't do though is fight a bounce that is already close to breaking outside the channel.