Monday, 19 November 2012

12pm update - big bounce

Mr Market is rallying hard in a classic 'holiday reversal'. There seems virtually nothing that will stop this bounce from breaking 1400 by this Friday. It would seem we'll likely level out next week, somewhere in the 1410/25 zone. This bounce would make for a very natural wave'2, as part of the current multi-month decline.


sp'monthly3, rainbow


We probably have another 30/40pts to go in this 4-6 day bounce, but I won't be part of it. I am content to sit on the sidelines until next week.

Prepare for bullish hysteria

As I noted to a few traders last evening, bears should be prepared to see a lot of bullish hysteria this week. After all, everything is fixed, right? Clearly, there is nothing to worry about, fiscal cliff, US recession, jobs, its all fine again.

The bulls will be touting sp'1500s in the days ahead.

I will let the market bounce, wait for it to level out, and then hit buttons ;) week.

*there will doubtless be a few tiny down cycles across the next few days. Bears need to be VERY careful to avoid such tempting declines. They will be so small, as to be untradeable.

back later in the afternoon.

UPDATE 12.40pm

Something on the fibs. A retracement to 1425 - my upper target, sure looks promising for next week.

I suppose we could get stuck around 1400/10, but..considering the size of todays move, and the fact we're already trading above the 200 day MA, 1425..sure looks the primary target.

UPDATE 1.15pm As day proceeds, I am refining target for next week. sp'1410/25 looks like the zone to be focusing on.


We could pull back in late afternoon to 1375/70, and it'd not be a problem to the bulls.

As it is, looks like we'll be somewhere around 1375/80 at the close.

Primary target is sp' next Tue/Wed.